Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
